The Method
No gut calls, no “locks of the century.” One piece of math, applied the same way every single day.
Sharp price vs. soft price
The model compares the sharp market (Pinnacle — the book pro bettors trust to be closest to true odds) against the best price at soft books like FanDuel and DraftKings. The gap between them is the edge.
The 3% bar
A pick only posts when that edge clears 3%. Under the bar, no bet — no matter how “good” a game looks. Every play that clears is logged with its odds, stake, and edge before first pitch.
Most days: no play
Betting markets are efficient — real mispricings are rare. Zero-pick days mean the bar is doing its job. Anyone selling you 8 locks a night is selling you the losses too.
The Books
The complete log. Nothing deleted, nothing backfilled — pushes, pending, and every loss included.
Ledger 01Official Picks
Plays that cleared the full 3% edge bar, sized 0.5–1.5 units. This is the record we stand on.
| Date | Matchup | Pick | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | -126 | 1u | W | +0.79u |
| 2026-06-09 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Los Angeles Dodgers | +100 | 1u | W | +1.00u |
| 2026-06-09 | Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Houston Astros | -120 | 1u | L | -1.00u |
| 2026-06-07 | Brewers @ Rockies | Brewers | -176 | 0.5u | W | +0.28u |
| 2026-06-07 | Mariners @ Tigers | Tigers | +104 | 1u | W | +1.04u |
| 2026-06-07 | Orioles @ Blue Jays | Blue Jays | -132 | 1u | W | +0.76u |
| 2026-06-06 | Mets vs Padres | Mets | -104 | 0.5u | L | -0.50u |
| 2026-06-06 | Dodgers vs Angels | Dodgers | -200 | 0.5u | W | +0.25u |
| 2026-06-06 | Red Sox @ Yankees | Yankees | -120 | 1u | PUSH | +0.00u |
| 2026-06-06 | Guardians vs Rangers | Rangers | +108 | 1.5u | L | -1.50u |
Ledger 02Free Board Leans
On days no play clears the bar, the model’s top leans post free in Discord and get tracked here at a flat 0.25u. A separate ledger that never touches the official record — and yes, it’s shown even when it’s losing. That’s the point.
| Date | Matchup | Pick | Odds | Stake | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | San Diego Padres @ Kansas City Royals | San Diego Padres | -117 | 0.25u | L | -0.25u |
| 2026-07-17 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | -109 | 0.25u | PENDING | — |
| 2026-07-17 | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians (total) | Under 7.5 | -104 | 0.25u | PENDING | — |
| 2026-07-16 | New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | -127 | 0.25u | L | -0.25u |
| 2026-07-16 | New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies (total) | Under 9.5 | -107 | 0.25u | W | +0.23u |
| 2026-07-12 | Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers (total) | Under 7 | -106 | 0.25u | W | +0.24u |
| 2026-07-12 | Athletics @ Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | -120 | 0.25u | W | +0.21u |
| 2026-07-12 | New York Yankees @ Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | -108 | 0.25u | L | -0.25u |
| 2026-07-11 | Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | -112 | 0.25u | W | +0.22u |
| 2026-07-11 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | +110 | 0.25u | PENDING | — |
| 2026-07-11 | Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (total) | Over 8.5 | -114 | 0.25u | L | -0.25u |
| 2026-07-10 | Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | -129 | 0.25u | L | -0.25u |
| 2026-07-10 | Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers | Philadelphia Phillies | +108 | 0.25u | L | -0.25u |
| 2026-07-10 | Athletics @ Chicago White Sox (total) | Over 9 | -102 | 0.25u | W | +0.25u |
| 2026-07-09 | Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | -116 | 0.25u | L | -0.25u |
| 2026-07-09 | Kansas City Royals @ New York Mets | New York Mets | -134 | 0.25u | W | +0.19u |
| 2026-07-09 | Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins (total) | Over 8.5 | -113 | 0.25u | L | -0.25u |
| 2026-07-08 | New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | New York Yankees | +105 | 0.25u | L | -0.25u |
| 2026-07-08 | Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks | +130 | 0.25u | L | -0.25u |
| 2026-07-08 | Athletics @ Detroit Tigers (total) | Over 9 | -109 | 0.25u | L | -0.25u |
| 2026-07-07 | Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | Milwaukee Brewers | -130 | 0.25u | PENDING | — |
| 2026-07-07 | Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks | +106 | 0.25u | L | -0.25u |
| 2026-07-07 | New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays (total) | Under 8 | -106 | 0.25u | L | -0.25u |
| 2026-07-06 | Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | -103 | 0.25u | L | -0.25u |
| 2026-07-06 | New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | New York Yankees | -102 | 0.25u | W | +0.25u |
| 2026-07-06 | Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals (total) | Under 8 | +100 | 0.25u | W | +0.25u |
| 2026-07-05 | Miami Marlins @ Athletics | Miami Marlins | +104 | 0.25u | W | +0.26u |
| 2026-07-05 | Baltimore Orioles @ Cincinnati Reds (total) | Over 9.5 | -108 | 0.25u | L | -0.25u |
| 2026-07-05 | San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies (total) | Over 13 | -104 | 0.25u | PUSH | +0.00u |
| 2026-07-04 | Miami Marlins @ Athletics (total) | Over 11 | -112 | 0.25u | L | -0.25u |
| 2026-07-04 | Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers | Detroit Tigers | -118 | 0.25u | W | +0.21u |
| 2026-07-04 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros | Tampa Bay Rays | -108 | 0.25u | L | -0.25u |
| 2026-07-03 | San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers (total) | Under 8 | -112 | 0.25u | W | +0.22u |
| 2026-07-03 | Miami Marlins @ Athletics (total) | Over 10.5 | -113 | 0.25u | W | +0.22u |
| 2026-07-03 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | +125 | 0.25u | L | -0.25u |
The Clubhouse
Everything the model posts lands in the Discord first — free, the moment it’s logged.
Also on X: @LockCityPicksHQ